I am honored to join you all and I’m fired up to be here. I’d like to give a shout out to Greg Poling – I think few people have done more to shine a light on what has been happening in the South China Sea, and why it matters strategically to all who value their national sovereignty, freedom of navigation, and the rule of law.  Greg – thanks for working this CSIS symposium - we really appreciate your work here. It’s a privilege to share some thoughts today from my position as U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander on the challenges and opportunities in the South China Sea.

Specifically, I want to address this topic by sharing what I see as two major trends:

First, there is a growing recognition that the South China Sea is part of a bigger regional picture. 
 
Much of discussion on the South China Sea is on who claims individual features and waters in a static area – the lines on the map.  Those lines on the map are of course critical.  For littoral states, they define sovereignty, as well as the energy, fisheries and other resources in the EEZ.  But ask any of the Pacific Fleet’s 150,000 sailors – or any mariner for that matter – and they will also remind you that the South China Sea is linked closely to the wider region.   It is the maritime thoroughfare along which commerce flows between the Indian Ocean and Andaman Sea, the vital Straits of Malacca, passing all ASEAN states, to Taiwan, Northeast Asia and beyond. 
 
We can see that China’s unlawful claims of control over the entire South China Sea are linked to its broader push toward hegemony in the region.
 
Just as China has increased its deployments and aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, it has intensified its rehearsals for invasion and blockade of Taiwan -- just a short distance north along the First Island Chain. 
 
For Pacific Fleet, our mission is to deter aggression across the Western Pacific, together with our allies and partners, and to prevail in combat if necessary.  That mission of deterrence applies region-wide -- including the South China Sea and Taiwan.   A conflict or crisis in either place would threaten the interests of countries across the region, and all the countries who rely on economic ties with it.  So, the South China Sea is not a dispute in isolation, but part of a broader, dynamic regional challenge, and I think it’s useful for us to think of it that way. 
 
 Second, deterrence is largely effective in the South China Sea.
 
In the last several years, China has deployed a growing number of vessels -- including China Coast Guard and maritime militia, with PLA Navy oversight -- to harass and coerce Southeast Asian states in their own waters.  It has used the artificial island bases it built as a springboard for those actions. 
 
The tactics China is using have also grown steadily more aggressive:  water cannons, ship-to-ship collisions, and lasing.  Exactly one year ago today, we saw that violence on video at Second Thomas Shoal.  China Coast Guard forces attacked a Philippine Navy resupply crew with axes and knives, injuring one Philippine sailor.
 
A year later, however, it has become clear:  China’s pressure is not working well.  It has failed to intimidate Southeast Asian claimants and make them surrender their sovereign rights.

Despite the pressure, the Philippines has been a leader in persevering and standing up to the challenges of sovereignty.  It has maintained its presence at Second Thomas Shoal and is resupplying its garrison.  By shining a light on China’s intimidation tactics at sea, it has shown that public exposure can help blunt the effectiveness of coercion.  Manila strengthened its Alliance with the United States, including our Navy.  It is modernizing and deploying its maritime fleet to defend its maritime rights.  They have deepened their security partnerships with many other nations who also value regional stability, and the need to uphold sovereignty and maritime rights.  The Philippines continues to operate with the navies of Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and many others – including the U.S. Navy – to conduct Maritime Cooperative Activities in waters of the South China Sea.  

Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam have all sustained or expanded their offshore oil and gas work in their EEZs in the South China Sea.  This, despite China’s deployments and demarches to stop developing energy in their own waters.

In addition, nearly all Southeast Asian littoral states have begun to prioritize improving their own maritime capabilities -- whether that’s with new vessels, patrol aircraft, sensors, or unmanned systems.  The United States is proud to play a role in that effort, along with many of our allies and partners.
 
So, in Southeast Asia, we have seen a laudable resilience and resolve to defend their maritime rights in the face of mounting pressure. 
 
I think the United States has been effective in deterrence as well.
 
The United States – and certainly the U.S. Navy in particular -- is privileged to be a friend, partner, or ally with nearly every nation that borders the South China Sea.  Our Navy has sailed in those waters, and across the Indo-Pacific since the founding of our Republic, building lasting relationships based on shared interests.  This year marks the U.S. Navy’s 250th year of service, and we’ve been in the Pacific almost since the beginning.
 
For our Department of Defense, and for our Navy, the Indo-Pacific is the priority theater.  That’s reflected in the strength of our Pacific Fleet, with over 200 ships and submarines, 1,300 aircraft, and 150,000 personnel.  This is about sixty percent of the U.S. Navy and includes many of our most advanced capabilities.  
 
On any given day, around one-third are deployed, and another third are combat-ready.  Today, there are two Pacific Fleet carrier strike groups underway, with more preparing for deployment.  The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group operated in and around the South China Sea for the last few months.  The USS George Washington Carrier Strike Group, homeported in Japan, is also underway patrolling the Western Pacific as well.  
 
One of our newest Amphibious Assault Ships, USS Tripoli, is en route to her new homeport in Sasebo, Japan.  And the USS America Amphibious Readiness Group is in Australia for the major bi-annual exercise Talisman Saber. 
 
On top of that, we have forward-deployed destroyers and littoral combat ships operating from Japan and Singapore, as well as submarine and airborne patrols throughout the region.
 
Our mission is to deter conflict -- by continually demonstrating we are ready to prevail in combat, if necessary.  Throughout the Indo-Pacific, we constantly are improving our capabilities and our combat readiness.  We do this by building the quality of our maintenance and training.  We do this by exercising and rehearsing.  And we do this by persistently operating forward while also fielding advanced technologies.  
 
In addition to U.S. actions, I think the strong contribution of our allies and partners has an enormous and cumulative effect on strengthening deterrence.
 
One of the clearest signs of this is the busy calendar of maritime and joint, combined exercises across the region.  To give some examples:
 
Last September, we joined SUPER GARUDA SHIELD in Indonesia, alongside twenty-two nations, including four from Southeast Asia and 5,500 combined forces personnel.  
We helped local Indonesian communities with projects such as road construction, and we do similar community service when we exercise in other countries.  
 
Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training, or CARAT, is a long-standing US exercise with Southeast Asian partners – now in its thirty-first year -- that continues to grow in scope and scale, and is often held in or near the South China Sea.  Last year, CARAT included the maritime forces of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, as well as the U.S. Navy.  In CARAT, we conduct integrated, multi-domain operations and share skills and tactics to refine how we operate together.  
 
A range of other annual, multi-partner exercises bolster deterrence by deepening interoperability and expanding the presence of allied and partner navies.  Pac Fleet has been part of each one.  Those include: 

MALABAR, with navies of India, Australia, Japan, and the United States;

KEEN EDGE, a high-end joint exercise with Japan and Australia with a regional scope;
 
BALIKATAN, the major exercise hosted by the Philippines each spring. It has evolved rapidly in sophistication, scope, and scale as Manila has expanded its security partners -- including the countries with whom it now has Visiting Forces-like Agreements such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand, alongside the United States.  The most recent round in March was the largest-ever, with joint forces from a range of regional countries and Japan joining as a full participant for the first time.  The exercise involved cutting edge capabilities, and a focus on the South China Sea and Luzon Strait.  
 
TALISMAN SABRE, hosted by Australia, in 2025 will also be larger than ever, with nineteen nations invited, and Papua New Guinea playing partial host for the first time.
 
All this is a reminder that deterrence is a team sport.  We all have a shared interest in making it work, and we all need to do our part.  But it cannot be achieved alone.
 
So, what can we expect in the coming year?  Let me offer a few thoughts:

First, we can expect China to continue to try to divide and pressure Southeast Asian countries over the South China Sea. 
 
This may come in various forms:  Such as behind-the-scenes pressure to stay silent when China’s ships press unlawful claims in Southeast Asian waters or harass oil and gas, or fisheries, in a country’s EEZ.  It could also mean China offering inducements, to buy silence or to look the other way as their Coast Guard or maritime militia asserts control.  It might mean sweet words – such as ‘let’s jointly develop your resources’ – that are in reality an invitation to arrangements that risk implicit recognition of Beijing’s ownership. 
Claimant states would be wise to compare notes, and stay vigilant to these tactics to preserve unfettered access to their sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the resources in their EEZs.
 
Second, we need to continue to improve our collective ability to deter aggression.
 
We should continue to train and exercise together in meaningful ways.  We welcome the trend of Southeast Asian states investing more in capabilities to protect their waters, and we encourage that to continue.  The U.S. Pacific Fleet will always be ready to operate together with you to strengthen deterrence and show no individual country can be pushed around.
 
As the Secretary of Defense said at the Shangri-La Dialogue a few weeks ago, “no one should doubt America’s commitment to our Indo-Pacific allies and partners.” 
For the U.S. Pacific Fleet, I can assure you we will continue -- every day -- to build our alliances, partnerships, and expand our operations together in ways that preserve peace through strength. 
 
With that, I look forward to your questions and our discussion.  Thank you.