Good afternoon!  Thank you to Stratbase,and especially to Professor Manhit for inviting me to share my perspective as U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander.  I am honored to join such a distinguished group.  On this milestone anniversary of the Arbitral Tribunal ruling, I want to share two major trends I see in the South China Sea:

First, there is a growing recognition that what happens in the South China Sea is part of a larger regional picture.  We can see that China’s unlawful claims of control over the entire South China Sea are linked to its broader push for hegemony in the region.  Just as China has increased its deployments and aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, it has intensified its rehearsals for invasion and blockade of Taiwan.  
 
For the U.S. Pacific Fleet, our mission is to deter aggression across the Indo-Pacific, together with our allies and partners, and to prevail in combat if necessary. That mission of deterrence applies region-wide -- including the South China Sea and Taiwan.   A conflict or crisis in either place would endanger the interests of countries across the region who rely on the flow of maritime commerce, and put their prosperity at risk.
 
Second, deterrence -- despite challenges -- is holding the line in the South China Sea.
 
In the last several years, China has deployed a growing number of vessels to harass and coerce Southeast Asian states in their own waters.  It has used the artificial island bases it built as a springboard for those actions.  China’s tactics have also grown steadily more aggressive -- with rammings, water cannons, lasers, and sometimes worse.  A year ago, we saw that violence on video at Second Thomas Shoal, when the China Coast Guard used axes and blades to injure a Filipino sailor conducting resupply.
 
Despite the bully tactics, it is clear at this ninth anniversary of the arbitral ruling:  China has failed to intimidate Southeast Asian claimants into surrendering their sovereign rights.  In fact, we have seen a laudable resilience and resolve to defend their maritime rights in the face of mounting pressure.
 
Nearly all Southeast Asian littoral states are now prioritizing stronger maritime capabilities.

Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam have all sustained or expanded their offshore oil and gas work in their South China Sea EEZs.  

Perhaps the most compelling example is the Philippines, which has shown -- in the face of heavy pressure -- you stand firm, defending your sovereign rights with dignity and strength.  It continues to sustain its garrison of brave Marines at Second Thomas Shoal. 
 
The AFP and Philippine Coast Guard are modernizing their capabilities, and deploying proactively to defend maritime rights.  By shining a media light on China’s intimidation tactics at sea, the Philippines has shown public exposure can be a vital tool to blunt coercion.  Its expansion of defense partners has also bolstered deterrence -- from expanding reciprocal access agreements, to inviting a growing range of maritime partners for cooperative patrols and exercises in the South China Sea.  The U.S. Navy is proud to be among them.

Supplementing this Southeast Asian resilience, the actions of the United States, I would argue,have had a real deterrent effect.  The U.S. -- and the U.S. Pacific Fleet in particular -- is privileged to be a friend, partner, or ally with nearly every nation bordering the South China Sea.  For our Department of Defense, and our Navy, the Indo-Pacific is the priority theater.  That’s reflected in the strength of our Pacific Fleet -- over 200 ships and submarines, 1,300 aircraft, and 150,000 personnel.  
This is about sixty percent of the U.S. Navy and includes our most advanced capabilities.  On any given day, around one-third of our units are deployed, and another third are combat-ready.  Today, there are three Pacific Fleet carrier strike groups deployed, with more preparing for deployment.  The GEORGE WASHINGTON Carrier Strike Group just patrolled the Philippine Sea and visited Manila.  And the USS AMERICA Amphibious Readiness Group is near Australia for the major exercise TALISMAN SABRE.  
On top of that, we have numerous forward-deployed destroyers, littoral combat ships, submarines, and aircraft patrolling the region.
 
In addition, the strong contribution of allies and partners -- many represented here today -- has had a powerful, cumulative effect onstrengthening deterrence.  While China has ignored the Arbitral Tribunal ruling, the rest of the world has not.
 
The ruling’s rejection of China’s claim, and its endorsement of the Philippines’ EEZ, has become the widely accepted view.  It is explicitly endorsed by a growing number of states --especially those who consistently champion freedom of the seas.  One of the clearest signs of ally and partner solidarity is the robust series of maritime and joint, combined exercises across the region. Those include BALIKATAN, right here in the Philippines.  
 
With credit to our Philippine hosts, BALIKATAN 2025 was the largest-ever, with forces from the Philippines, U.S., Australia -- Japan for the first time -- and sixteen other nations observing.  Multilateral exercises like BALIKATAN are a reminder that deterrence is a team sport.  We all need to do our part, and we must continue to build deterrence for the challenges ahead.  
 
So, what can we expect in the coming year in the South China Sea?
  
First, we can expect China to continue to try to divide and pressure the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries over the South China Sea.  This may come in various forms:  It could be behind-the-scenes coercion to stay silent when China’s ships harass oil and gas, or fisheries, in another country’s EEZ.  It could mean China offering inducements, to buy silence or to look the other way as their Coast Guard or maritime militia asserts control.
 
It might mean sweet words -- such as ‘let’s jointly develop your resources’ -- that are actually an invitation to arrangements that risk implicit recognition of Beijing’s ownership.  Claimant states would be wise to compare notes and stay vigilant to these tactics.

 That will help preserve unfettered access to their sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the resources in their EEZs.
 
Second, we need to continue to improve our collective ability to deter aggression.
  
We should continue to train and exercise together in meaningful ways.  The U.S. Pacific Fleet is always ready to work with you to strengthen deterrence and show no individual country can be pushed around.  As the U.S. Secretary of Defense said at the Shangri-La Dialogue, “no one should doubt America’s commitment to our Indo-Pacific allies and partners.”
  
For proof of that commitment, look no further than the ironclad alliance between the Philippines and the United States. 
 
The Philippines is America’s oldest security treaty ally in the Indo-Pacific -- since 1951 -- and our alliance is stronger than ever.  Today, we operate with our Philippine allies as equals. Our alliance has gained dramatic momentum, and evolved significantly, in the last few years.  Together, we are increasing infrastructure investments at agreed sites in the Philippines to support combined training, exercises, interoperability, and disaster response.   
 
We’re bringing advanced capabilities and training to the Philippines, and deepening our collaboration on defense industry and cyber defense, as announced by the Secretary Hegseth and Secretary Teodoro in March.  The momentum in our alliance is encouraging -- and the cause is enduring.  That cause is freedom.  Freedom to safeguard national sovereignty and pursue your people’s prosperity without coercion or threat of force.  
 
Earlier today, I paid my respects at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, at the Philippine Heroes’ Cemetery.  It stands not far from the Manila American Cemetery, where many American fallen are laid to rest.  It reminded me not only of the shared sacrifice of allies, but how vital it is to show resolve to uphold your rights -- whether your nation is large or small. For my part, and our part at the U.S. Pacific Fleet, we will continue to stand with the Philippines and our other allies to uphold your sovereignty and the freedoms we all hold dear.
 
Thank you for being here and for allowing me the time to have this important conversation with you.